What to Expect This Summer: Food Shortages and Price Increases

 I'd like to go on record here on the first day of Spring, 2025, predicting which foods we in the US will find expensive and in short supply later this year. Let's revisit this post in a couple of months to see how well I did. You are welcome to leave a comment with your predictions, too! 

The basis is California

As a young woman working in corporations, I found myself living in an odd place: Modesto, California, in the heart of the San Joaquin Valley. As I drove to work in nearby Stockton every day, I passed rows upon rows of grapevines. There was also the odorous sugar beet factory, with piles of rotting beet pomace, munched on by contented cows. Planes flew above, dropping loads of sticky malathion to quash the Mediterranean fruit fly that was damaging orchards. 

Around this time of year, the groves of almond trees were beautiful, wearing their white blossoms. Almonds grow well in this area although they require a lot of water. So, if you cherish almond milk on your morning cereal, it would be best to think about switching to a different alternative milk. I predict prices will rise because the federal government ordered that water be released from the area's reservoirs last month. More than 2.2 billion gallons of water flooded the fields, orchards, and vineyards. This means that water, which comes from the Sierra Range in Northern California and the Cascade Range in the Northwest, will not be available later on when the almond trees really need it. 

Today, March 20, 2025, the cost of a one-pound bag of shelled raw almonds ranges from $8 to $10. A half-gallon of Bettergoods Almond Milk at Walmart is only $2.44 (but it may be out of stock).  Other nut crops are also grown in California such as walnuts and pistachios. In fact, 99 percent of US pistachio production comes from the Golden State. 

Now, let's look at those grapevines. Virtually all of the nation's table grapes are grown in California. Water shortages will affect the size and quality of the crop. Raisins, too, will be affected. And wine. Are you ready for a California wine shortage? 

Other fruits will have crop shortages and failures. Oranges, lemons, tangerines, grapefruit. Stone fruits: peaches, plums, nectarines, apricots. Kiwi fruit. Olives. Dried fruits too. Trail mix.  A one-pound bag of Trader Joe's Trail Mix today is $13.83. Let's revisit the snack aisle in a couple of months and see what's what. 

The line between fruits and vegetables is somewhat undefined, but what's clear is that the bounty of fresh produce that comes from Central California is going to be diminished. From artichokes to zucchini, consumers will see high prices and empty shelves. Even such staples as tomatoes and potatoes might be hard to find unless you grow them yourself.

Many specialty crops come from California. So our holiday tables will be more expensive to fill with goodies like fig jam and pomegranates. In the Delta country around Sacramento, a special kind of rice is grown that is used to make sushi. And for all you people who shy away from gluten, the rice flour you use comes from California, too. Better start looking for substitutes. 

A question lingers: why was all this water released prematurely? It seems that the new administration in its infinite wisdom thought that the water would flow through the valley and south several hundred miles to Los Angeles. But it is patently clear looking at any map that water flows through a process called gravity from the highest elevations to the lowest. The mountains are in the North and East, while the lowest elevations are in the west, at sea level. In the San Joaquin Valley, water pools in the valley, on the floodplain, and is absorbed into the earth. It was a colossal error to release the precious water, and we'll be paying for it for years.  But who will pay the most will be the farmers. They have already invested in seeds, fertilizer, equipment. Crops and trees will die. Soil will dry up and blow away. Harvests won't happen.